Cooked Goose

Wide Receievers

I got one thing to say about wide receivers: Who knows? 

Calvin Johnson is the consensus number one wide out. Megatron deserves it, and ought to be drafted in the first round. Okay, granted.  But despite his monster year, you know what he did in the critical five week stretch of weeks 10-14? Megatron forgot to be Mega. In four of those five weeks, Tron went single digit. The one week he doubled, he barely scratched 10 on the board. Need a broader sample? Okay, let’s take a look at the number ten WR, Mike Wallace. Wallace was an early round pick last year. And in most leagues, he towed #1 WR duties for some poor sap, who got one double digit output from Wallace in the second half. From weeks 10-17, he scored 2 TDs, both of ’em in one game. That’s 7 of 8 games without a TD. Ouch, mommy, that hurts.

I think as the trend moves toward pass heavy offenses, it hurts the #1 WR. It sounds crazy, but bear with me a minute. Pass happy offenses mean defenses need to adjust. Corners and Safeties are drafted higher; they sign bigger contracts. More teams are stocking three, four legit corners. The #1 WR obviously gets the lion’s share of attention from these beefed up secondaries. Andre Johnson, Larry Fitz, and Megatron will always be doubled. Always. The defenders they pull opens gaping holes for #2s, slot receivers, tight ends. Why throw to Dez Bryant through a tight window when Laurent Robinson is standing alone in the end zone? It’s why we know names like Antonio Brown, Victor Cruz, and Jordy Nelson.

No doubt about it; you need a couple solid receivers. The trend of ballooning pass offenses demand it. What remains in doubt is who those solid receivers will be. Again, who knows? I don’t. And so I’m planning on waiting … you know, put something together piecemeal.

Tight Ends

The Beast moniker is overused in sports. Anyone who does anything big is a beast. “He’s a beast off the tee.” You know you just called a guy wearing an argyle, vest sweater, and white trousers – a guy standing on a manicured tee box of a private country club a beast, right? No. The name ought to be reserved for those select few who literally send shivers down our collective spine – the ones who freeze us in jaw-gaping, glass-dropping terror.

Robert James Gronkowski is a beast. The Gronk, all 6’6″ 265 of him. The dude is huge. Now combine that size with … okay, I’m gonna say what we’ve all been thinking … Gronk isn’t the brightest bulb on the chandelier. C’mon, you’ve thought it. You’ve watched the post game interviews, the YouTube clip of the wild, post Superbowl flail dance. He’s missing that something connected to inhibitions, to calculating risk. It’s what helps him be singularly minded on a football field. “Gronk catch, Gronk run, Gronk spike ball real hard.” This past season, watching him barreling down the field like a starving giant palming a loaf of stolen bread, I involuntarily muttered Beast. And I suspect a few undersized defensive backs did the same as they braced themselves for a beating. The combination of size and his single-minded, recklessness makes Rob Gronkowski a certifiable beast.

Will the beast go in the first round in your draft? If we knew the beast goes off again this year, then we’d have to draft him early. But before we get too excited, remember, Gronk had the best season by a Tight End ever. Ever! How often does ever get repeated? Welker and Hernandez are still there. And the Pats just added Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney, who I think both fit the system better than Ocho. And then all those Defenses that were abused, they’ve been up all night studying. You know what happens to monsters – to beasts. They run amuck for a while – terrorize the countryside. But eventually they send in the mob with the pitch forks; eventually they fly in the airplanes. And we all know how that story ends.

Beast or no beast, I’m not taking a Tight End in the first round.

Running Backs

I like Running Backs.

In my opinion, you ought to use your top five picks to secure a couple of solid ones. Quarterbacks are predictable. We pretty much can name the top five Quarterbacks before the season starts. Relatively speaking, they are not major injury risks. And in a standard 12 team league, there are plenty of serviceable QBs. These reasons tell me to wait on a QB.

Wide Receivers are the exact opposite: They are unpredictable. Every year in fantasy, there is an undrafted WR goin’ off. Couple years ago it was Brandon Lloyd. This past year it was Victor Cruz. Here are some names from the list of last year’s top ten fantasy WR: Jordy Nelson, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith, and Percy Harvin. The opposite tell me the same thing: Wait on WRs.

Running Backs are less predictable than the QB – due mostly to injury – but more predictable than the WRs. There are fewer serviceable ones than either spots. All this tells me, “Grab a RB early. Two, if you can.”

Here’s my top ten, and a quick thought for each:
1. Arian Foster – Again, I love Arian Foster.
2. Ray Rice – Sturdy, runs and catches, and pro bowl fullback. Better than Flacco.
3. LeSean McCoy – Little too much dancing. Can he repeat 20 TDs?
4. Chris Johnson – C’mon. He couldn’t have forgotten how to run.
5. Maurice Jones Drew – Just keeps on ticking. Blaine Gabbert can’t be worse, right?
6. Ryan Mathews – With Gates aging, Jackson gone, SD gets balanced.
7. Darren McFadden – Chicken legs. Roll the dice; pray for them legs?
8. Marshawn Lynch – Skittles strikes me as a bit volatile. Beastmode or apathy?
9. Adrian Peterson – If he says he’s good, and he is there in the 4th. How can I pass?
10. DeMarco Murray – Dallas will score pts. And everyone saw Murray do what Jones could not.
Honorable Mention: Darren Sproles – Can he do it again?

Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Fred Jackson – Kinda like driving with the gas warning light on. Nervous.

Peterson the only one coming off major injury to make the list. Never loved Charles, Mendenhall, or Forte. Hillis, Redman, and Bush mess with all their value.

Theory of Relativity

This time last year, we were all talking “lock out”. As owners and players squabbled over how a nine billion dollar revenue pie was going to be sliced, we fantasy football degenerates sat  at the edge of our seats, wringing our clammy hands. We jumped to our feet each time Shefter or Mortensen appeared on our TV screens.  All summer long they delivered the same news, “Close, but …” Slumping back in our seats, we yelled, “C’mon, get it done! Do these people know they’re messing with our fantasy season? And what? For a few dollars more? Spoiled millionaires.”

Whenever there is a labor dispute in pro sports, the prevailing public sentiment is outrage. The average working person takes one look at the numbers and decries the indecency of millionaires fighting over billions. But, hold on a minute. Isn’t it all relative?

Relatively speaking, the average American wage earner placed on a global salary scale is extremely wealthy – a relative “millionaire”. No one in this country bats an eye when a grocery worker “holds out” for better wages. But go tell a doctor in Sri Lanka that a grocery worker making 45K annually is striking for 5% more. That Sri Lankan after scratching his head at the puzzling reality that an American grocery worker makes double what he as a trained physician in Sri Lanka makes, will decry the greed of demanding more on top of what is deemed from his perspective to be a paltry salary.

It’s relative. And so it’s about perspective – a perspective that does not come easily. To see the world consistently from a place in relation to others is challenging. We generally struggle to empathize. “Not everyone is like me.” So, next time you’re tempted to shake your head at a labor dispute in pro sports, consider this: Who among us average wage earners would leave money on the table – money we believed was due us – out of consideration for the guy in Sri Lanka?

Times they are a changin’

The list of Heisman winners of the past two decades tells of a “shift in the wind.” In the decade of the 90s, four Running Backs won the Heisman. If you throw in Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson who won their Heisman as much for running back punts as they did for WR and Corner duties respectively, you have six “runners”. From 2000-2009, only two RBs took home the coveted trophy. With Reggie returning his, only one trophy dons a RBs mantle. Where did the other eight go? To Quarterbacks.

Now consider the list of Super Bowl winners in the past decade: Tampa Bay Bucs, New England (2), Indy, Pitt (2), NY Giants (2), Packers, and the Saints. Quick, who were their Running Backs? Uh…um,…wait…oh, I know…um. You have to go back to the Baltimore team of 2001 to get a clear RB – Jamal Lewis. The ten previous had household names like Terell Davis and Emmitt Smith.

Times they are changing. Last season, Drew Brees broke Dan Marino 28 year old single season passing record. If Drew somehow would have stumbled, Brady would have broken it. Matthew Stafford was 30 and change from breaking it. Stafford! Let’s face it: Teams win without a “work horse” RB. With the wear and tear, many teams have adopted a platooning arrangement, giving rise to a whole new sub category: third down back, goal line back. Times they are a changing.

Some have declared the changing times requires a change in strategy. Running Backs need to be moved down the board, and players in the passing game moved up. I beg to differ. Certain things make me feel rich: Full jar of kim chee in the fridge, a box of ProV1s, a twelve pack of Pacifico, a supply of quality socks and boxers in my drawer, AND…and Running Backs on my fantasy team. I’m a simple man with simple needs; and I need me some RBs. I don’t know what it is about that middle of my fantasy line-up that just makes me feel, depending on abundance or scarcity, either invincible or like I got my pants around my ankles.

My thought is the changing times only boosts the value of the Stud Running Back.

A Confession: I love Arian Foster

Ten reasons why Arian Foster needs to be your top pick.

1. 20 pts. per. That’s Arian Foster’s average fantasy output in the last two seasons in games he has played. Let me put that number in perspective. Over the same span Aaron Rodgers, the number one QB has put up 23.5 avg.
2. 6’1″ and 229 lbs.  4.69 40. Size and speed.
3. 26 – his age at the start of 2012 season – his third full season. Neither a pup nor an old dog, 25-29 prime RB years.
4. Favorites – Houston Texans poised to be tops in the AFC South for some time. Each game will matter and they will be motivated.
5. Andre Johnson – Takes the top off opposing defenses, meaning the safety can’t drop into the box. Foster will see no 8 man fronts.
6. O-Line – Houston has arguably the nastiest, most athletic offensive line in the NFL. Last season I saw D-Lines just getting blown off the ball.
7. Perfect Combo – Foster’s patient, cut and run downhill style is perfect for the Kubiak’s zone blocking run system.
8. Nose – Arian Foster has a nose for the goal line. Rarely gets stoned at the the gate. 30 TDs in 28 games.
9. Kubiak – From Shanahan’s coaching tree, but decidedly different approach with respect to RB usage. Suspect that he’s more influenced by Terrel Davis than Mike Shanahan. Davis during Denver’s best seasons with Kubiak at O-Cordinator was the only one back there getting the ball. When he got it, he ate up huge chunks of real estate. Amassing ridiculous numbers in ’98. In his heart, I do not believe Kubiak believes in platooning RBs. A platoon situation was presented to him on a platter last season. It made sense to integrate Ben Tate. Kubiak passed. Check the numbers. One more thing, he’s not a cute Offensive Coordinator. He’s not a Sean Payton or a Mike Martz who get their thrills from being clever. Kubiak wants to vicariously punch the opponent in the face with his Offensive Line.
10. Every Down Back – Obviously early downs. His size and his nose for the endzone makes him a goal line back; he ain’t gettin’ vultured. On top of all that, he’s got great hands, making him the best 3rd down back in football. Last season when Johnson went down, Foster became the Texans’ #1 receiver.

11. Bonus: Marshawn Lynch. Beastmode will be a top ten RB taken in most drafts. That’s how thin it is at RB.

The Key to Pleasure

For every instance of sheer, unadulterated pleasure, fantasy football exacts at least two measures of brutal pain. Those of us who love it, know this; it’s clearly a love hate thing. For every, “Yeah! Go, go! Touchdown!” there are twice as many, “Awe, no, NO! Not to the fullback! C’mon!” Case in point: Last year in our league, the poor fella who lost in the Championship started Tony Romo. Romo if you recall was on a tear going into the fantasy playoffs. And at home against Philly, all signs pointed “Go!” Then in the first, Jason Babin came up the middle. Romo in his follow-through inadvertently punched the top of Babin’s helmet. His throwing hand swelled up like a grapefruit. Unable to grip the ball, Romo was pulled. When pulled, he had exactly 0 fantasy pts. Zero. Zilch. Nada. To make matters worse, the rest of the poor fella’s fantasy team went off. In the end, he lost by a point. Yeah. This really happened. One point. In the Championship Game. Romo gets zero, and he lost by 1! Brutal.

Next time you’re in one of these fantasy “headlocks”, remember, it’s the “fantasy” in fantasy football that both pleases and pains. It’s the illusion. At the heart of fantasy football like all fantasies, there is an illusion of control. It’s what makes it fun: picking, sorting our line-up, playing a hunch. Our game of illusion however is played on a field of reality. Each Sunday, the day that counts, our fantasy interplays with their reality. And we’re reminded that we have zero control. There are real GMs, real coaches. Stripped of illusion, we’re relegated to screaming at the heartless LCD.

So, for me, here’s the key to enjoying the fantasy football experience: Loosen the grip, raise the hands, and go happily screaming with the ups and downs. It’s fantasy man; gotta embrace the fact that we don’t have much control. As much as you’d like to take credit for taking Steve Smith in the 10th round, you really shouldn’t. You can no more take credit for Steve Smith with your 10th than be blamed for Chris Johnson with your first.

Junior Seau 1969-2012

News broke Wednesday that Junior Seau was found dead in his Oceanside, CA home. The first reports placed the cause of death as an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound. Those reports have since been confirmed. Junior Seau was 43 years old.

On a football field, there are high profile positions. Quarterback being the highest. Wide receivers and running backs get a lot of love. They move the rock; they score TDs. The defensive ends get noticed for sacking QBs. Even corners and safeties on occasion pick a ball, and get that “high-steppin” spotlight. The middle linebacker, not so much. They are usually the first in a gang tackle, lost in the cluttered, pile somewhere near the line of scrimmage. Their names, though, their names are some of the most iconic names in football: Nitschke, Butkus, Lambert, Singletary. Not glamorous, but revered. They are the Quarterbacks of the defense. The leader. The anchor. And when there is a good defense, you can pretty much bank there’s a good middle linebacker holding it down. And for twenty NFL seasons, Junior Seau was one of the best.

What possesses a man to take his own life? Even more, what possesses a man like Junior Seau to take his own life? The unthinkable is so common place that the rest of us barely stutter a step. “Nothing to see here. Just keep moving.” With hardly a moment’s ponder, we dial up a conclusion – simple and far removed from our own stories. Hurry, reconnect the loop, man; get the reel spinning. Just keep moving.

I hope the news of Junior Seau stops you in your tracks.

2012 NFL Draft

If there were any lingering questions as to which professional sport reigns supreme in sports crazed America, the coverage of the NFL Draft ought to have put those questions to rest. Forget what they say about Nascar. It’s Pro Football, hands down. No other sport comes close. What other sport has the audacity to rent out Radio City Music Hall and put their draft on prime time TV? Not one night, but multiple. ESPN knows, it will draw. They’re right; the Draft is high drama. As these men cross the stage, give the Commish the bear hug, put on the lids and hold up the jerseys, we’re watching dreams realized, millionaires made, and the hopes of franchises pinned. All in “On the Clock” rapid succession. Live and in high def. Man, hand me the remote.

Aargh, missed it. Worked late. So tuned into the the highlights. From a fantasy perspective however, the Draft doesn’t interest me. Why? Well, rookies are an unreliable lot. Yeah, I know what Cam Newton did last season. And I know AJ Green and Julio Jones put up some respectable numbers. But I’m not going to be lured to that watering hole ’cause a couple guys got a good drink last season. I’ve seen what happens at that watering hole. I’m betting if I cozy up to sneak a drink with RG3, good chance something jumps up and bites my head off. No thanks.

With all that said, I must admit, Trent Richardson does intrigue me. He’s being touted the most complete RB since Adrian Peterson. Peterson if I recall had a stellar rookie campaign. Hmm… But here’s the thing: Richardson is going to one of the worst scoring offenses in the NFL. Looks like he’ll be paired with a rookie QB. And the pair will be “cutting their teeth” against the AFC North – Pitt, Cincy, and Balitmore. Yeah, no, not in the early rounds. You go ahead; you drink first.

Quarterbacks Continued: Get Your Man

Nobody really knows. If we’d all known, we would’ve made Chris Johnson the number one overall pick in 09. Michael Vick would not have gone undrafted in 2010. And Eli Manning would not have been a 7th rounder last year. The unknown is an undeniable element of fantasy football. Just think about all the first round busts last season: Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Andre Johnson, Michael Vick, Rashard Mendenhall.

In this uncertain landscape, the Quarterback position stands as the last remaining beacon of stability. Drew Brees is the closest thing to a sure thing you’ll get in fantasy football. With about half dozen sure fire 250+ pt QBs, really the best thing to do is grab one with your first or second round pick. At least then you know, you’re starting each week with 20+ pts. The fact that it is consistently the highest scoring position only bolsters the argument to grab one early and run.

Two things give me pause. I’ve already mentioned the first: The traditional variation in pts between 1st and 2nd tier QBs is not as great as other positions. The other thing that gives me pause is in most leagues, you can only start one QB. Making that traditionally small margin even smaller. Definitely covet the consistency and predictability of a Aaron Rodgers. But if I think I can get solid production – putting me within five to ten pts every week – at a value price, I’ll take it.

A word of advice if you go the risky route: Get your man. The position is too important to just “wing it” at the draft. Think of a couple QBs you think will give you mid-round value, and target them. In targeting, it helps to track the QB position during the draft. Once the 1st tier QBs are off the board, that’s when the clock starts on your man. Your league’s draft will dictate which round you jump in. One more thing: It wouldn’t hurt to take anther solid QB in the next round. Take out the insurance.

A huge pick. Miss it, you could be starting Sexy Rex on your 2-4 mid-season loser.